The American Eagle vs The Chinese Dragon
September 2024
The year 2024 is notable for the large number of elections being held worldwide: more than 100 countries from around the world, home to nearly half of the global population, will vote, including eight of the world's 10 most populous nations… Around 4 billion voters– approximately half of the world's population – are eligible to vote in elections this year. 2024 has been called the year of elections. This year is expected to have a big impact on global politics. (Wikipedia)
This year has also seen surprising results, with ruling political parties suffering huge and unexpected electoral defeat, ushering in a shift in power in Europe and Asia. It is clear that people are tired of politicians. They want solutions, not politics and power blocs only interested in protecting their own interest.
And we have the upcoming US Elections, full of twists and turns and drama already – the attempted assassination of Trump, a mentally challenged Biden who was forced to step aside for his VP to run. And now it is down to Donald Trump 2.0 versus Kamala Harris for the presidential election in November.
Heading South
Meanwhile, on the economic front, I read an interesting article in June this year:
https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2024-06-12/geopolitical-uncertainty-impacting-global-economy-and-driving-gold-demand#google_vignette.
I extract some parts here (emphasis mine):
“Ali Borhani, Managing Director of 3Sixty Strategic Advisors Ltd and co-founder and host of the BRI Dialogues, discussed the role of Canada and Europe in the global economy as the two are stuck between the American Eagle and the Chinese Dragon. He said that it is important to recognize that the world is changing and to acknowledge the reasons for this change. He explained that there is a collective feeling of disillusion among the Global South towards developed nations in the Northern Hemisphere.
He pointed out that the expansion of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) is an indication that a new multi-polar world has been established.
“Half of the world population is in BRICS+. Two-thirds of world trade happens in BRICS+. BRICS are adding 74 million consumers a year. That is two times Canada out of these markets,” Borhani said. “The largest buyers of energy and the largest sellers of energy happen to be in the Global South and among BRICS. So we're looking at the rewiring of energy, finance, supply chain, and tech.”
As emerging markets have become more disappointed with Western policies, China has been able to grow its influence. Borhani used a famous quote from Larry Summers, the US Secretary of the Treasury, to highlight this shift in influence in the developing world. “Every time you guys come here, Europeans and Americans, you give us a lecture. Every time the Chinese come, they give us an airport, a hospital,” he said.
“The United States has gone around the world, telling countries to choose. And I think one of the biggest failures of American foreign policy, and this is a bipartisan failure, is not providing an alternative [to China],” Díaz-Rosillo said. “We have to have a restructuring of foreign policy so that we work hand in hand with the private sector, so that those services and those projects that are badly needed have an American presence, have a European presence. We make the choice much easier for these countries to choose, to choose America, to choose Europe instead of China.”
My Thoughts
First, future growth in the world economy will be in the South where population growth and consumer demand will be growing fastest, in South East Asia especially. As an investor, this insight is helpful. For the past 18 months I have furiously worked on simplifying and consolidating my assets; It had taken a lot more grief, plus lots of warring than anticipated. But thank God, now, I am all set and am slowly increasing my investments in the South.
Next, is the concern about what the North is going to do. One thing for sure, these once wealthy welfare nations, now riddled with debt and high cost of military spending, will follow the money like a bloodhound. And, as history proves, they will not hesitate to protect their own interest, at anyone else’s expense.
Finally, the world is at an inflection point. Countries will have to choose between aligning themselves with the American Eagle or the Chinese Dragon as they jostle to be the dominant superpower of this age.
Since the end of World War 2, the world has seen global peace under the Eagle but she has since become drunk with Babylonic wine and is morally, and economically, bankrupt. And, if their men of God have fallen so hard, is there hope for the rest of the nation? Will God turn away from this favoured nation who at one time put their trust, and their dollar, in Him?
As for the dragon, she is a fearsome creature that breathes fire even if she goes around giving away precious pearls. She holds her cards close to her chest; one never really knows what is on her agenda. She follows her own rules and has proven herself ruthless and unreasonable when threatened or when her ego is damaged.
Will these two egomaniacs allow the rest of the world to remain neutral and not pick sides?
Lord, as for us, we pick You – the Way, the Truth and the Life (John 14:6) and the most powerful of all Superpowers, to which every knee must bow. You are our 111, our ever present help in times of trouble, holy and upright, caring and kind, honest and true. So help us Lord Jesus, that we do not have to be coerced to pick any other except You.
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